Partition, Prompt, Aggregate: Statistical Self-Consistency in Language Models
arXiv:2607.15277v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals




